900 Million EVs Needed for Climate Target

There are about a million electric vehicles (including plug-in hybrids) on the roads worldwide now, according to various outlets, including EV Volumes. The publication says the total will reach two million by year’s end. According to the International Energy Agency’s Global EV Outlook 2016, that’s a tiny fraction of the number that will be needed by mid-century to give at least a 50-50 chance at keeping global warming to two degrees (2DS) or less.
The 2DS of the IEA ETP 2016 sets a deployment target for electric cars (including fuel-cell EVs in its definition) exceeding goals announced in the Paris climate agreement: 140 million (10% of the total stock of passenger light-duty vehicles [PLDVs]) by 2030, and nearly 900 million (40% of the PLDV stock) by 2050. This translates to sales targets close to 20% by 2030 and 40% by 2040, with accelerated deployment in OECD member economies and rapidly developing emerging economies.    

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